Posted by Kirk Minihane

I’ll get to the tight end rankings in a moment. Got an email from Thom asking if he should go with Edgerrin James or Thomas Jones in the fourth round of his draft.

Close call, the Jets will be better this season and Jones should get some more scoring chances. Neither guy is a strong receiving option, but both are clear-cut number one backs, which is rare this season. 

I’ll go with Edge here. Jones had 310 carries last season and scored one TD. His average yards per carry was 3.6, and I suspect with added expectations comes a short leash. With James you know he’ll be the guy all season in the desert. He’s no longer a top-five back but he’s averaged about 1,200 yards and 6 rushing scores a season with Arizona. To me that’s an every-week flex play.

Let’s go three-up and three-down with the tight ends…

Three Up 

Kellen Winslow

I have him ranked as the number two TE (behind Witten) on my draft sheet. At age 25, he’s poised to challenge the 100-catch total this season. Gates will go before Winslow in most drafts, and I think that’s a big mistake. Winslow has been more productive the past two seasons (171 catches to 146) and is now healthier than Gates. I would take Winslow in the third round if he’s available. His value over an average tight end is too large to ignore.

Vernon Davis

It seems that 2008 may be the year that sees Davis move into that 5-7 range of NFL TEs. He has been promised a larger role in the 49ers offense and seems to have a nice chemistry with J.T. O’Sullivan (And a quick defense of Uncle Rico Bledsoe here. I know he’s kind of a punchline in Boston and is viewed as a disappointment, but three Pro Bowls and a pair of AFC Title Game wins is not a bust. Alex Smith is a bust.). Can Davis go from 52 catches in 2007 to 70 in 2008? Wouldn’t surprise me.

Jeremy Shockey

Remember, Gates really took off with Drew Brees under center in San Diego. Brees hasn’t had that guy in New Orleans until now. If healthy (and he will be ready for the opener), I expect Shockey to have his best season to date in 2008. Look for 75 catches, 1,000 yards and 8-10 TDs.

Three Down

Todd Heap

Heap is almost on the Three-Up list, actually, because he is one of the few tight ends in the league capable of a 75-catch season and can be had in the middle rounds. The problem is, of course, that he just won’t stay healthy. A repeat of 2007 (six games, 23 catches) is more likely than his 73-catch 2006 season. If, however, he falls into the later rounds in a draft I’d take a chance on him. I just think he still carries some name recognition and will be taken when the inevitable run of tight ends happens in the draft.

Ben Watson

I think we can agree that this will be the peak of Watson’s career. Great athlete, good football player, not a fantasy tight end of much value. He’ll get the occasional TD and isn’t a bad bye week pickup, but he’s somewhere in that 10-12 range in fantasy. 

Antonio Gates

This is a “not worth where you’ll have to pick him” choice. Gates had 75 catches last season. Todd Heap had 73 catches in 2006. Both have injury problems (though I’ll concede that Heap’s are worse, a turf toe can be a brutal injury). Why, then, do I need to take Gates 100+ picks earlier than Heap? Don’t risk a third-rounder on Gates when you can still add a top WR or QB at that spot.

Late Night Links tonight…