Red Sox Reviews: Jon Lester

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Posted by Gary Marbry

Before Jon Lester takes the hill later today for the first time in 2009, let’s take a look back at his remarkable 2008 season, Nuggetpalooza-style!

JON LESTER – 210.1 IP in 2008 – 16-6, 3.21 ERA

In 2008, Jon Lester threw 3,309 pitches, an increase of 2,226 over the year before.  Since the 1988 season, 117 different pitchers have had a season in which their workload increased by at least 2,200 pitches over the previous year.  Twelve of those did it in 2008.  In the “previous” season, those pitchers threw a total of 3,257 innings and had a 4.27 ERA (those totals do not include the 12 pitchers who saw their big increase in 2008).  In their season of the big increase, that group’s totals were 20,241 IP and a 4.00 ERA.  But in the season after the big increase, their total innings dipped to 15,851 IP (78% of the previous season’s innings) and their ERA ballooned to 4.46.  So, history is not particularly on Lester’s side, but every case is different and it’s not like Lester, Tito, and Theo haven’t bucked history before.

* - Lester allowed a .305 average (.805 OPS) to the 350 batters faced on weekends in 2008 (Friday/Saturday/Sunday) but just a .224 average (.612 OPS) during the week.  The 81 point average difference was the 2nd largest in the majors (min. 200 BF weekdays and 200 BF weekends):

.084 – Adam Eaton (.348 weekends vs .263 weekdays)
.081 – Jon Lester (.305 weekends vs .224 weekdays)
.081 – Oliver Perez (.197 weekends vs .278 weekdays)

Just For Fun:  The Red Sox as a team had better pitching success during the week than on weekends as well.  In 2008, they ranked 8th in the AL in OPS allowed on weekends (.734), but their .697 OPS allowed on weekdays was the 3rd best mark in the AL since 2004:

.679 – Toronto (2008)
.682 – Oakland (2005)
.697 – Boston (2008)

* - Lester fashioned a streak of 22 consecutive starts in which he allowed 4 or fewer ER that stretched from Sept. 2007 through last June 22.  It was the longest such streak by a Red Sox pitcher since Pedro’s 31 in 2002-2003 and the 10th longest ever by a Red Sox hurler (Pedro also had a 32 gamer in 1999-2000).  17 of the starts in Lester’s streak came during 2008, tied (with four others) for the longest such streak in the AL last season.

* - After Lester allowed 6 HR in his first 8 starts in 2008 (through May 4; 45.2 IP), he allowed only 8 more over his last 25 starts (168 IP).  His 1.18% HR/BF rate after May 4 was the lowest in the majors after that date (min. 400 BF):

1.18% - Jon Lester, BOS
1.24% - Ubaldo Jimenez, COL
1.25% - Mike Pelfrey, NYM
1.34% - Tim Lincecum, SF

* - Twice in 2008, Lester induced at least one GIDP in 5 straight starts.  Since 2000, only Tim Wakefield has had a longer such streak among Red Sox pitchers (6 in 2002).

* - The Red Sox won the last 14 times that Lester started games at Fenway during the regular season in 2008. It’s the longest streak ever by a Red Sox pitcher:

14 – Jon Lester (2008)
13 – Luis Tiant (1977-1978)
12 – Don Schwall (1961)

His streak is creeping toward the all-time major league bests as well:

24 – Johan Santana (2005-2007)
18 – Atlee Hammaker (1982-1983)
17 – Whitey Ford (1964-1965)

Surprisingly, only Ron Darling (1988) and Steve Carlton (1977) have longer streaks during a single season (16 each) than Lester’s 14.

* - Lester allowed a .661 OPS to the AL East in 2007, then followed that by allowing the same .661 OPS to the AL East in 2008 as well.

* - From June 22 through the end of last season, opposing hitters went 0-14 against Lester from the 5th inning on with RISP and 2 outs.  Only one pitcher allowed a .000 batting average in those spots in more opponent AB:  Justin Masterson (0-15).

Man, it’s great to have real, live baseball back.

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