Posted by Gary Marbry

Welcome to this week’s Nuggetpalooza to help get you ready for the big game against the Fish on Sunday!

SOME “DID YOU KNOW?” NUGGETS:

100 MORE PENALTY YARDS - If I told you that Pittsburgh’s win against San Diego last weekend was the 28th game since 1991 in which one team had 100+ more penalty yards than their opponent, how many of those would you guess that team won?  None?  Two? Five?  Including Pittsburgh’s win, those teams are now 13-15.  I would have NEVER guessed that they would have won that many.

OUTRUSHING BY 150+ YARDS EQUALS WIN- Miami outrushed Oakland by 152 yards (222-70) last Sunday.  Since 1991, teams that have 150+ more rushing yards than their opponent are 267-10.  It’s interesting that the last time that such a team lost was week 14 last season, when Pittsburgh outrushed New England, 181-22, but lost 34-13 at Gillette.  Teams that rack up 200+ yards on the ground are 23-1 in 2008. Last week was the 2ndtime this season that Miami has rushed for 200+ yards (the other was week 2 (versus the Patriots).  Before this season, Miami had not rushed for 200+ yards in a game since week 17 of 2002, also against New England.

JETS GAME BUCKED SOME TRENDS - Prior to last week’s loss, the Patriots had won 18 of their last 19 games in which they passed for 300+ yards, dating back to 2002.  They had also won 30 of their last 31 (and 19 straight) in which they recorded at least 25 first downs since 1996.

STOPPING MIAMI ON THIRD DOWN IS A GOOD IDEA - Dating back to 2006, Miami has gone 0-9 when they fail to convert at least 25 percent of their 3rd downs.
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WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL

* - HOLDING THE LINE AFTER TURNOVERS - The Patriots have committed 13 turnovers this season, but the defense has stepped up, allowing just one touchdown and two field goals after those giveaways.  That is a historically low pace of points allowed following turnovers:

Lowest Points Per Giveaway Allowed (since ‘95)

NE -  2008 - 1.00  (13 pts off 13 giveaways)
Bal - 2006 - 1.17 (27 / 23)
Bal - 2000 - 1.23 (32 / 26)
SD -  2001 - 1.34 (39 / 29)
Ten - 2007 - 1.44 (49 / 34)

HIGHEST:  2008 STL - 4.94 (89 points off 18 giveaways - 4 return TDs, 7 offensive TDs, 4 FGs)

* - 3RD DOWN IN THE RED ZONE - The Patriots have allowed 55 percent conversions on red zone 3rd downs this season and are on pace to become the first team since ‘95 (when they started tracking the stat) to allow at least 53 percent for two straight seasons.

* - PASSING WHEN THE PATRIOTS BLITZ - New England has been historically bad this season defending against passes when they blitz:

Worst Pass Defense When Blitzing (Passer Rating Allowed; Since ‘95)

NE -  2008 - 116.9
Cle - 1995 - 116.3
Dal - 2000 - 116.2
Mia - 1996 - 115.0
Ari - 2002 - 113.5
Hou - 2005 - 112.2

Since 1995 - Highest Completion Percentage Allowed When Blitzing

NE -  2008 - 70.4%
SD -  2008 - 69.3%
Ind - 2005 - 68.8%
NYJ - 2008 - 68.6%
TB -  2007 - 67.7%

* - DROPPED PASSES- The Dolphins have only 9 drops this season (tied for the fewest in the NFL).  However, it’s trending the wrong way for Miami. Over the season’s first nine weeks, they dropped only 1.5 percent of catchable balls (4 out of 270).  But in the last two weeks, they’ve had 5 drops out of 43 catchable balls (11.6 percent).

* - RUN STUFFAGE - Miami has had over 10 percent of their rush attempts stuffed for losses this season (about twice the rate of New England’s runners who lead the league at just 5 percent).  However, the Patriots defense has stuffed only 7 percent of opponent carries (6th worst).

* - 1ST DOWN EFFICIENCY - The Patriots defense ranks just 24th, allowing 4+ yards on 1st down 49 percent of the time this season.  It’s been even worse over the last two weeks (56 percent).  Miami ranks 3rd in average yards per 1st down play (6.1) and they’re trending upward (6.5 in the last two games).

* - 2ND AND LONG - The Dolphins lead the league in converting 2nd and 6 yards or more (30.3 percent), but that could be a bit deceiving as they are just 6 for their last 30 (20 percent).

* - NO EARLY GIVEAWAYS - Miami is the only team in the NFL that does not have a turnover on their opening possession of either half all year.  The Patriots have 4.  Only the Lions have more (5).

* - NOT MANY LATE GIVEAWAYS EITHER - Last year, the Pats committed only 15 turnovers, the lowest single season total in the NFL since at least 1995.  Through ten games this season, the Dolphins are on pace to break that mark, having committed just 8.

* - GO GET THAT BEER EVEN IF YOU MISS THE KICKOFF- The Dolphins are dead last in average kickoff return (19.5).

* - BETTER GET THE FIRST BY AIR - The Patriots are allowing just 4.2 rushing first downs per game, 2nd in the league.  Over the last two weeks, they’ve only allowed 6 (3.0 per game).

* - INSIDE THE 50?  DON’T FRET - Miami has started just 7 drives on their opponent’s side of the 50 this season (NFL low) and have averaged just 1.3 points on those drives (also an NFL low).

* - FUMBLE LUCK- Like the Jets last week, Miami has been quite lucky when it comes to fumble recoveries this season.  They’ve put the ball on the ground 11 times, but have only lost 3 of them.  Conversely, New England’s defense has forced very few fumbles (just 7, tied for the NFL’s fewest), but they’ve recovered 5 (71 percent, 2nd highest percentage).

* - TWO MINUTE DRILL FUTILITY - The Dolphins are one of only four teams remaining that have not scored on a possession starting inside of two minutes in a half.  No points in 13 such possessions.

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WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

* - YARDS AFTER THE CATCH- Almost 54 percent of New England’s passing yardage has come on runs by the receiver after the catch, the highest mark in the NFL this season (the Rams are 2nd at 52 percent).  In addition, the Dolphins have allowed an average of 6.0 YAC yards per reception, 5th most.  Wes Welker.  Paging Mr. Wes Welker.

* - DEARTH OF LONG PASSES- I realize that it’s becoming a weekly staple of Nuggetpalooza to point out how rarely the Patriots throw long (21+ yards in the air) and how futile those attempts have been (4-20 for 164 yards and a 57 rating).  However, Miami has been completely awful at defending those passes this season, allowing a 110 rating (3rd worst in the league).  Makes you wonder if BB will change the game plan a little and take a few shots.  Offensively, Miami and New England have just 11 such completions this year COMBINED.  Twelve different teams have more than that this season.

* - FEWER THREE AND OUTS - The Patriots offense has risen to 7th in lowest percentage of 3 and outs on offense (17 percent), thanks to just 2 such possessions in their last two games (9 percent).

* - PASSING IS IMPROVING - I have a stat that takes yards per passing attempt and includes sacks (reduces gross yards and counts as an attempt) to give a more complete “Yards Per Attempt Including Sacks” (YPAIS) figure.  The Patriots are at 5.9 this season (21st).  But the trend is positive as the Pats have put up a 7.0 figure over the past two games.  However, the Dolphins defense has also stiffened in this regard, allowing just 4.2 YPAIS over the last two weeks (now 6.5 for the entire season).

* - THIRD AND MANAGEABLE - NE has converted 60 percent of their 3rd and 5 yards or less opportunities (6th).  Couple that with the Dolphins defense allowing 61 percent conversions (4th worst) and you’ve got to feel pretty good about those situations.  However, in 3rd and 6 or more to go, the Pats convert just 29 percent (14th) and Miami allows just 20 percent (5th best).  Kinda makes that second down play more important, doesn’t it?

* - INSIDE THE 30 EQUALS POINTS - The Patriots have gotten inside the 30 yard line 48 times this season and scored points on 43 of those (90 percent, 3rd).  Unfortunately, those scores have usually been field goals (20 TD / 23 FG).

* - KICKOFF RETURNS - NE ranks 3rd in average kickoff return (25.9) and have 13 returns of 30+ yards (most in the league).  Meanwhile, Miami ranks LAST in kickoff coverage, allowing an average return of 27.3.  Could this be a game changer?

* - NOTHING EASY - The Dolphins have not allowed a TD run of 10+ yards yet this season while New England has just one such run, so don’t expect too much in this area on Sunday.

* - PUNT RETURNS- The Dolphins are one of only three teams that has allowed multiple punt return touchdowns this season.  While the Pats don’t have a punt return touchdown, they have been effective, ranking 8th in the league with an 11.9 average.  New England has 11 punt return TD’s since 1976, their last coming in 2002.  They have never run back a punt for a TD against Miami.

Enjoy the game!  As always, I would love to hear from you.  If you have a question, comment, or suggestion, feel free to leave a comment or send an email directly to me at gmarbry@weei.com.