Posted by Gary Marbry

Broadway Joe

After researching last week’s nuggetpalooza, it was evident to me that the Patriots would handle the Bills.  There was lots of statistical evidence that pointed to a New England win.  That’s not the case this week, however.  The Jets and the Patriots are, statistically, very similar this season.  Below are a slew of nuggets that show some cases where one team or the other has a matchup advantage and other situations where the teams are even.  The key is figuring out which one (or ones) will spell the difference tonight.

* - FUMBLITIS:  The Jets have fumbled quite a bit this season (1.5% of all touches, 20th) but they’ve been lucky in that they’ve only lost 4 of their 13 fumbles.  The Patriots have fumbled only 10 times, but they’ve lost 5 of them.  The Jets defense has forced 18 fumbles (3rd most), while the Pats have only forced 6 (tied with New Orleans for the fewest in the league).

* - POINTS OFF TURNOVERS:  31% of the 190 points scored against the Jets this season have come off turnovers, the 2nd highest percentage in the league. Only 13 of the 160 allowed by New England (8%) have come off turnovers (2nd lowest mark).  Of course, 31% of the 255 SCORED by the Jets have come off turnovers as well (4th).

* - SETTLING FOR FG’S:  A troubling trend for New England heading into the stretch is their 0.86 TD/FG ratio, 29th in the league.  It will be interesting to see if there is improvement in this area during the season’s second half.

* - YAC:  Both teams have relied heavily on “Yards After Catch” this season as 57% of the Pats passing yards have come after the catch (1st) compared to 51% for the Jets (3rd).  Only 44% of NE’s opponents’ passing yards have been YAC yards (just 24% against Buffalo).  The Jets defense has stopped 39 passes with 1 YAC yard or fewer this season (3rd), but they’ve also allowed 10 pass plays with 20+ YAC yards (tied for NFL high).

* - INSIDE THE 30:  New England has been inside the 30 on 41 occasions this season and has scored on 90% of those, the 4th highest mark in the NFL.  However, the Jets defense has allowed scores on only 68% of the 40 times that their opponents have crossed the 30, the lowest percentage allowed in the league.

* - PENALTIES:  The Patriots offense has only 2 holding penalties (only Cleveland has fewer with 1) and 5 false starts (only SD has fewer with 4) all season.  On the other side, the Pats have just 2 pass interference penalties, but they’ve totaled a whopping 63 yards.  Only 79% of penalties called against the Jets have been accepted this season (12 declined), the lowest % in the league.

* - HALFTIME IS ONLY HALF WAY:  From a Yards Per Play perspective, the Jets defense REALLY tails off after halftime this year.  In the 1st half, NY allows only 4.2 yards/play, 3rd in the league.  After that, they allow 5.5 yards/play, 22nd.

* - 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS:  While the Pats are 4th in the league in 3rd down conversion percentage (46.2%), it’s a bit misleading.  New England leads the league in attempts on 3rd and 3 or less (48) and have converted 73% of those.  They’ve only converted 29% of their tries on 3rd and 6+ (14th) and are 29th on 3rd and 10+ (12%).  On defense, the Patriots lead the NFL, allowing only 46% conversions on 3rd and 5 or less.

* - JETS 1ST DOWNS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL:  52% of the Jets 1st down plays have gone for 4+ yards this season (2nd, including 18 out of 29 last week in the rout of the Rams).  Their defense has allowed 4+ on 1st down just 38% of the time, also 2nd.  Last week, the Rams did it just 5 times out of 19 tries.  One thing, though.  The Jets have been somewhat susceptible to giving up the big play on 1st down, allowing 10+ yards 17% of the time (just 23rd).

* - NO RETURNS:  Only 7 of NE’s 28 punts this season have been returned (25%), the lowest number of returns, punts, and lowest % in the NFL.  Of course, the ones that have been returned have gone for an average of 12.9 yards (29th).  Jets returners also average 12.9 yards (6th).  This could be a factor Thursday night.

* - RUN THE BALL AND STOP THE RUN:  Another big factor could be the Jets impressive running game (4.6 average per carry; 3rd) and their ability to shut down their opponents’ run game (3.2 average allowed; 5th).  A real test awaits the Patriots O-Line and the hyphenated running back.  New England’s run defense will also need to step it up after allowing 4 yards or more on 10 of 18 (56%) Bills rushes last week.

* - CLOSE TO THE VEST:  New England has only 2 TD this season of 20+ yards and the Jets have only allowed 1.  Compare that to the Vikings, who have scored a league leading 11 such TD’s this season.

* - NE 3 AND OUTS:  The Patriots didn’t have a 3 and out last week and have the 7th lowest percentage of offensive 3 and outs this season (17%). The Pats forced the Bills into two 3 and outs and now have the 4th highest 3 and out percentage on defense (30%).

* - LONG DRIVES:  The teams are ranked 1-2 in 10+ play drives this year (Pats 23; NYJ 20) so expect lots of ball control.  It’s interesting, though, that the Patriots average only 3.4 points on those drives (24th), while the Jets ALLOW only 2.8 points on each drive, the lowest mark in the NFL.

* - 1ST DOWN DRIVE KILLERS:  The Patriots have allowed 13 sacks on 1st down this year (the most in the league) and the Jets pass rushers have recorded 17 first down sacks, also the most in the league.

* - BLITZ PASSING:  While still the worst defense in the league in “blitz passing” situations (66% completions and a 118 rating), the Pats took a step forward on Sunday against Buffalo (3 for 7, 36 yards).  When the Jets blitz, though, they’ve recorded 17 sacks (NFL high), although when opposing QBs get the pass away, they’ve completed 68% of them, the 2nd highest mark in the league.  Matt Cassel went 5-6 for 82 yards against blitzes last Sunday and has completed 69% of his passes against blitzes this season (3rd).

* - FEW LONG PASSES:  Don’t expect many bombs out of New England tonight.  The Pats offense is only 4 of 18 (2nd fewest completions) when the pass travels 21+ air yards this year and the Jets defense has allowed only 4 of 23 (also the 2nd fewest completions).

* - NOT MANY STUFFS:  Neither team gets runs stuffed often.  The Pats are 2nd, losing yardage on only 5% of their rushes, while the Jets (8%) are 5th.  When the Jets do get stuffed, their average loss (1.6 yards) is the smallest in the NFL (the Pats, 1.9 are 8th).  Neither defense has done well at run stuffing this season.

* - 2ND AND 1 IS DONE DEAL FOR JETS:  The Jets are the only team that is still perfect (10 for 10) on 2nd and 1 this season.

* - STARTING FIELD POSITION:  The Jets average start has been the 35 (1st) while the Pats are 5th (average start at the 33).  This has contributed to only 43% of the Jets scores have come on drives of 60+ yards (the lowest % in the NFL), while the Patriots have the 3rd lowest such percentage (54%).

* - JETS DON’T RUN IT OUT:  When Jets opponents kick off into the end zone this season, 69% of the time it results in a touchback, the highest % in the league.  Also, 67% of Patriots kickoffs that reach the end zone result in touchbacks, also the highest mark in the league.  Compare those figures to NE opponents kickoffs where only 15% of kicks that reach the end zone are not run out.

* - RETURN TOUCHDOWNS:  While the Jets have scored AND allowed 4 return TDs this season, the Pats still have not scored or allowed one all year (Oakland is the only other such team this season).

* - NEGATIVE PLAYS:  While the Patriots (64) have many more negative plays on offense this year than the Jets (51), those plays have only lost 3 more total yards, mostly thanks to the Patriots 4.8 average loss per sack (smallest in the league) versus the Jets average loss of 7.9 yards (3rd largest).  New England’s defense has only recorded 39 negative plays (2nd fewest in the league), but the average loss on Patriots sacks (7.8) is the 2nd highest mark in the NFL.

Enjoy the game!