Posted by Gary Marbry

Butch and Sundance

Welcome to this week’s Nuggetpalooza to help get you ready for the big game against the Fish on Sunday!

SOME “DID YOU KNOW?” NUGGETS:

100 MORE PENALTY YARDS - If I told you that Pittsburgh’s win against San Diego last weekend was the 28th game since 1991 in which one team had 100+ more penalty yards than their opponent, how many of those would you guess that team won?  None?  Two? Five?  Including Pittsburgh’s win, those teams are now 13-15.  I would have NEVER guessed that they would have won that many.

OUTRUSHING BY 150+ YARDS EQUALS WIN- Miami outrushed Oakland by 152 yards (222-70) last Sunday.  Since 1991, teams that have 150+ more rushing yards than their opponent are 267-10.  It’s interesting that the last time that such a team lost was week 14 last season, when Pittsburgh outrushedNE, 181-22, but lost 34-13 at Gillette.  Teams that rack up 200+ yards on the ground are 23-1 in 2008. Last week was the 2ndtime this season that Miami has rushed for 200+ yards (the other was week 2 (versus the Patriots).  Before this season, Miami had not rushed for 200+ yards in a game since week 17 of 2002, also against New England.

JETS GAME BUCKED SOME TRENDS - Prior to last week’s loss, the Patriots had won 18 of their last 19 games in which they passed for 300+ yards, dating back to 2002.  They had also won 30 of their last 31 (and 19 straight) in which they recorded at least 25 first downs since 1996.

STOPPING MIAMI ON THIRD DOWN IS A GOOD IDEA - Dating back to 2006, Miami has gone 0-9 when they fail to convert at least 25% of their 3rd downs.
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WHEN THE DOLPHINS HAVE THE BALL

* - HOLDING THE LINE AFTER TURNOVERS - The Patriots have committed 13 turnovers this season, but the defense has stepped up, allowing just 1 touchdown and 2 FG after those giveaways.  That is a historically low pace of points allowed following turnovers:

Lowest Pts Per Giveaway Allowed (since ‘95)

NE -  2008 - 1.00  (13 pts off 13 giveaways)
Bal - 2006 - 1.17 (27 / 23)
Bal - 2000 - 1.23 (32 / 26)
SD -  2001 - 1.34 (39 / 29)
Ten - 2007 - 1.44 (49 / 34)

HIGHEST:  2008 STL - 4.94 (89 pts off 18 giveaways - 4 return TD, 7 offensive TD, 4 FG)

* - 3RD DOWN IN THE RED ZONE - The Patriots have allowed 55% conversions on red zone 3rd downs this season and are on pace to become the first team since ‘95 (when they started tracking the stat) to allow 53%+ for two straight seasons.

* - PASSING WHEN THE PATRIOTS BLITZ - New England has been historically bad this season defending against passes when they blitz:

Worst Pass Defense When Blitzing (Passer Rating Allowed; Since ‘95)

NE -  2008 - 116.9
Cle - 1995 - 116.3
Dal - 2000 - 116.2
Mia - 1996 - 115.0
Ari - 2002 - 113.5
Hou - 2005 - 112.2

Since 1995 - Highest Completion % Allowed When Blitzing

NE -  2008 - 70.4% 
SD -  2008 - 69.3% 
Ind - 2005 - 68.8% 
NYJ - 2008 - 68.6% 
TB -  2007 - 67.7% 

* - DROPPED PASSES- The Dolphins have only 9 drops this season (tied for the fewest in the NFL).  However, it’s trending the wrong way for Miami. Over the season’s first 9 weeks, they dropped only 1.5% of catchable balls (4 out of 270).  But in the last two weeks, they’ve had 5 drops out of 43 catchable balls (11.6%).

* - RUN STUFFAGE - Miami has had over 10% of their rush attempts stuffed for losses this season (about twice the rate of New England’s runners who lead the league at just 5%).  However, the Patriots defense has stuffed only 7% of opponent carries (6th worst).

* - 1ST DOWN EFFICIENCY - The Patriots defense ranks just 24th, allowing 4+ yards on 1st down 49% of the time this season.  It’s been even worse over the last two weeks (56%).  Miami ranks 3rd in average yards per 1st down play (6.1) and they’re trending upward (6.5 in the last two games).

* - 2ND AND LONG - The Dolphins lead the league in converting 2nd and 6 yards or more (30.3%), but that could be a bit deceiving as they are just 6 for their last 30 (20%).

* - NO EARLY GIVEAWAYS - Miami is the only team in the NFL that does not have a turnover on their opening possession of either half all year.  The Patriots have 4.  Only the Lions have more (5).

* - NOT MANY LATE GIVEAWAYS EITHER - Last year, the Pats committed only 15 turnovers, the lowest single season total in the NFL since at least 1995.  Through ten games this season, the Dolphins are on pace to break that mark, having committed just 8.

* - GO GET THAT BEER EVEN IF YOU MISS THE KICKOFF- The Dolphins are dead last in average kickoff return (19.5).

* - BETTER GET THE FIRST BY AIR - The Patriots are allowing just 4.2 rushing first downs per game, 2nd in the league.  Over the last two weeks, they’ve only allowed 6 (3.0 per game).

* - INSIDE THE 50?  DON’T FRET - Miami has started just 7 drives on their opponent’s side of the 50 this season (NFL low) and have averaged just 1.3 points on those drives (also an NFL low).

* - FUMBLE LUCK- Like the Jets last week, Miami has been quite lucky when it comes to fumble recoveries this season.  They’ve put the ball on the ground 11 times, but have only lost 3 of them.  Conversely, New England’s defense has forced very few fumbles (just 7, tied for the NFL’s fewest), but they’ve recovered 5 (71%, 2nd highest percentage).

* - TWO MINUTE DRILL FUTILITY - The Dolphins are one of only four teams remaining that have not scored on a possession starting inside of two minutes in a half.  No points in 13 such possessions.

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WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

* - YARDS AFTER THE CATCH- Almost 54% of New England’s passing yardage has come on runs by the receiver after the catch, the highest mark in the NFL this season (the Rams are 2nd at 52%).  In addition, the Dolphins have allowed an average of 6.0 YAC yards per reception, 5th most.  Wes Welker.  Paging Mr. Wes Welker.

* - DEARTH OF LONG PASSES- I realize that it’s becoming a weekly staple of Nuggetpalooza to point out how rarely the Patriots throw long (21+ yards in the air) andhow futile those attempts have been (4-20 for 164 yards and a 57 rating).  However, Miami has been completely awful at defending those passes this season, allowing a 110 rating (3rd worst in the league).  Makes you wonder if BB will change the gameplan a little and take a few shots.  Offensively, Miami andNew England have just 11 such completions this year COMBINED.  Twelve different teams that more than that this season. 

* - FEWER THREE AND OUTS - The Patriots offense has risen to 7th in lowest percentage of 3 and outs on offense (17%), thanks to just 2 such possessions in their last two games (9%). 

* - PASSING IS IMPROVING - I have a stat that takes yards per passing attempt and includes sacks (reduces gross yards and counts as an attempt) to give a more complete “Yards Per Attempt Including Sacks” (YPAIS) figure.  The Patriots are at 5.9 this season (21st).  But the trend is positive as the Pats have put up a 7.0 figure over the past two games.  However, the Dolphins defense has also stiffened in this regard, allowing just 4.2 YPAIS over the last two weeks (now 6.5 for the entire season).

* - THIRD AND MANAGEABLE - NE has converted 60% of their 3rd and 5 yards or less opportunities (6th).  Couple that with the Dolphins defense allowing 61% conversions (4th worst) and you’ve got to feel pretty good about those situations.  However, in 3rd and 6 or more to go, the Pats convert just 29% (14th) and Miami allows just 20% (5th best).  Kinda makes that second down play more important, doesn’t it?

* - INSIDE THE 30 EQUALS POINTS - The Patriots have gotten inside the 30 yard line 48 times this season and scored points on 43 of those (90%, 3rd).  Unfortunately, those scores have usually been field goals (20 TD / 23 FG).

* - KICKOFF RETURNS - NE ranks 3rd in average kickoff return (25.9) and have 13 returns of 30+ yards (most in the league).  Meanwhile, Miami ranks LAST in kickoff coverage, allowing an average return of 27.3.  Could this be a game changer?

* - NOTHING EASY - The Dolphins have not allowed a TD run of 10+ yards yet this season while New England has just 1 such run, so don’t expect too much in this area on Sunday.

* - PUNT RETURNS- The Dolphins are one of only three teams that have allowed multiple punt return touchdowns this season.  While the Pats don’t have a punt return touchdown, they have been effective, ranking 8thin the league withan 11.9 average.  New England has 11 punt return TD’s since 1976, their last coming in 2002.  They have never run back a punt for a TD against Miami.

Enjoy the game!  As always, I would love to hear from you.  If you have a question, comment, or suggestion, feel free to leave a comment or send an email directly to me at gmarbry@weei.com.

Posted by Gary Marbry

Ricky "Wild Thing" Vaughn

WHO WERE THE BEST AND WORST HITTERS AGAINST STRIKEOUT PITCHERS?

* - In 2008, pitchers who averaged 9+ strikeouts per 9 innings faced about 1 in every 9 batters during the year.  Which batters fared the best and worst against these fireballers?  121 different hitters batted at least 60 times against this group:

HIGHEST BATTING AVERAGE

Jhonny Peralta – CLE - .433
Ryan Doumit – PIT - .410
Carlos Delgado – NYM - .364

LOWEST BATTING AVERAGE

Geovany Soto – CHC - .071 (5 for 54)
Jason Varitek – BOS - .119 (7 for 59)
Jim Thome – CHW - .121

KEY RED SOX (in order by PA)

Dustin Pedroia - .313, 6 HR, 23 RBI, .954 OPS
Jacoby Ellsbury - .221, .524 OPS, 17 of 19 hits were singles
Kevin Youkilis - .282, 2 HR, 15 RBI, .801 OPS
Jason Bay - .176, 3 HR, .693 OPS (combined PIT/BOS)
Coco Crisp - .216, .550 OPS (8-48 .167 thru July; 8-26 .308 Aug/Sept)
Mike Lowell - .262, 3 HR, .785 OPS
David Ortiz - .204, 3 HR, .793 OPS, 6 of 11 hits were EBH
JD Drew - .240, .397 OBP
Jed Lowrie - .188, .598 OPS
Alex Cora - .360 (9 for 25), 1.088 OPS, 1 K in 30 PA

* - Pedroia led the majors in PA (114) and RBI (23) against the fireballers.  It’s too bad that he finished the season just 3 for his last 15.

* - Prior to August 1, the Red Sox as a team hit .221 (10th in the AL) and averaged 1 HR every 69 PA (only Toronto, with 1 every 108 had fewer in the AL).  But from August 1 on, they hit .248 (5th) and homered every 34 PA (about twice as often).

* - Before we leave the subject, let’s take it one step further.  I spoke with a pitcher that is currently in the Oakland organization and he intimated that successful hitters against high strikeout pitchers would be those who could do their damage early in the count because, generally, those pitchers have something nasty as their strikeout pitch.  Therefore, let’s see how hitters did against the high strikeout pitchers with 2 strikes:

HIGHEST BATTING AVERAGE WITH 2 STRIKES (Vs. Pitchers With 9+ K/9; Min. 25 such PA)

Curtis Granderson – DET - .353
Jose Castillo – PIT - .343
Ian Kinsler – TEX - .342

LOWEST BATTING AVERAGE

Matt Kemp – LAD – 0 for 34 (25 K)
Jason Michaels – CLE/PIT - 0 for 25 (16 K)
Grady Sizemore – CLE – 0 for 24 (17 K)
Alfonso Soriano – CHC – 0 for 22 (16 K)

KEY RED SOX

Dustin Pedroia - .283, 2 HR
Jacoby Ellsbury - .216, 20 K in 57 PA
Kevin Youkilis - .268, 4 doubles
Jason Bay (combined PIT/BOS) – 3 for 42 (26 K)
Coco Crisp - .146, 18 K in 43 PA
Mike Lowell – 4 for 34, 16 K
David Ortiz – 4 for 31, 16 K, 2 HR
JD Drew - .400 OBP in 40 PA
Jed Lowrie – 3 for 27 (15 K)
Alex Cora – 8 for 13 (.615) with 3 doubles (1.688 OPS)
Jason Varitek – 4 for 39 (23 K)

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RED SOX REVIEWS  - MICHAEL BOWDEN AND JONATHAN VAN EVERY

Player                         ERA    W   L  SV    IP  H   ER    BB   SO  
Michael Bowden        3.60   1   0   0    5.0    7    2      1     3  

* - Went through an 0-1 count on 13 batters and 1-0 on only 5.  That 72.2% “0-1” rate was 3rd in baseball (min. 20 BF).

HIGHEST % OF 0-1 COUNTS VS 1-0 COUNTS – 2008 – MIN 400 BFP

Mike Mussina – NYY – 63.8%
Kevin Slowey – MIN – 63.0%
Ervin Santana – LAA – 62.7%
Cliff Lee – CLE – 62.5%
Dan Haren – ARI – 61.9%

NOTABLE RED SOX:

Mike Timlin – 59.9%
Josh Beckett – 58.5%
Jonathan Papelbon – 57.8%
Daisuke Matsuzaka – 55.6%
Clay Buchholz – 53.7%
Tim Wakefield – 52.9%
Jon Lester – 52.9%
Justin Masterson – 50.6%
Manny Delcarmen – 49.5%

 
Player                            AB    R    H   2B  3B   HR  RBI     BA    OBP   SLG 
Jonathan Van Every       17    0    4    0   1       0     5     .235  .278  .353

* - Has seen at least 3 pitches in 17 of his 18 career plate appearances (94%). 

HIGHEST % OF PA SEEING 3+ PITCHES – NON PITCHERS - 2008 (Min 15 PA)

Matthew Brown – LAA – 95.0% (19-20)
Jonathan Van Every – BOS – 94.4% (17-18)
Craig Stansberry – SD – 94.4% (17-18)

HIGHEST % OF PA SEEING 3+ PITCHES – MIN. 300 PA

Nick Swisher – CHW – 87.6%
Jayson Werth – PHI – 86.3%
Bobby Abreu – NYY – 86.1%
Jack Cust – OAK – 84.4%
Brandon Boggs – TEX – 83.5%

LOWEST % OF PA SEEING 3+ PITCHES – MIN. 300 PA

Bengie Molina – SFG – 56.6%
Yuniesky Betancourt – ATL – 57.5%
Alexei Ramirez – CHW – 57.8%

KEY RED SOX PERCENTAGES:

JD Drew – 78.5%
Jason Bay – 77.9%
Kevin Youkilis – 77.8%
Jed Lowrie – 77.1%
Jason Varitek – 75.8%

* - Over his last two minor league seasons, 2007 with the Cleveland organization and 2008 at Pawtucket, Van Every has hit 38 HR and put up a combined OBP of .379.

Back soon with more Red Sox Reviews and a Patriots Nuggetpalooza!

Posted by Gary Marbry

Broadway Joe

After researching last week’s nuggetpalooza, it was evident to me that the Patriots would handle the Bills.  There was lots of statistical evidence that pointed to a New England win.  That’s not the case this week, however.  The Jets and the Patriots are, statistically, very similar this season.  Below are a slew of nuggets that show some cases where one team or the other has a matchup advantage and other situations where the teams are even.  The key is figuring out which one (or ones) will spell the difference tonight.

* - FUMBLITIS:  The Jets have fumbled quite a bit this season (1.5% of all touches, 20th) but they’ve been lucky in that they’ve only lost 4 of their 13 fumbles.  The Patriots have fumbled only 10 times, but they’ve lost 5 of them.  The Jets defense has forced 18 fumbles (3rd most), while the Pats have only forced 6 (tied with New Orleans for the fewest in the league).

* - POINTS OFF TURNOVERS:  31% of the 190 points scored against the Jets this season have come off turnovers, the 2nd highest percentage in the league. Only 13 of the 160 allowed by New England (8%) have come off turnovers (2nd lowest mark).  Of course, 31% of the 255 SCORED by the Jets have come off turnovers as well (4th).

* - SETTLING FOR FG’S:  A troubling trend for New England heading into the stretch is their 0.86 TD/FG ratio, 29th in the league.  It will be interesting to see if there is improvement in this area during the season’s second half.

* - YAC:  Both teams have relied heavily on “Yards After Catch” this season as 57% of the Pats passing yards have come after the catch (1st) compared to 51% for the Jets (3rd).  Only 44% of NE’s opponents’ passing yards have been YAC yards (just 24% against Buffalo).  The Jets defense has stopped 39 passes with 1 YAC yard or fewer this season (3rd), but they’ve also allowed 10 pass plays with 20+ YAC yards (tied for NFL high).

* - INSIDE THE 30:  New England has been inside the 30 on 41 occasions this season and has scored on 90% of those, the 4th highest mark in the NFL.  However, the Jets defense has allowed scores on only 68% of the 40 times that their opponents have crossed the 30, the lowest percentage allowed in the league.

* - PENALTIES:  The Patriots offense has only 2 holding penalties (only Cleveland has fewer with 1) and 5 false starts (only SD has fewer with 4) all season.  On the other side, the Pats have just 2 pass interference penalties, but they’ve totaled a whopping 63 yards.  Only 79% of penalties called against the Jets have been accepted this season (12 declined), the lowest % in the league.

* - HALFTIME IS ONLY HALF WAY:  From a Yards Per Play perspective, the Jets defense REALLY tails off after halftime this year.  In the 1st half, NY allows only 4.2 yards/play, 3rd in the league.  After that, they allow 5.5 yards/play, 22nd.

* - 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS:  While the Pats are 4th in the league in 3rd down conversion percentage (46.2%), it’s a bit misleading.  New England leads the league in attempts on 3rd and 3 or less (48) and have converted 73% of those.  They’ve only converted 29% of their tries on 3rd and 6+ (14th) and are 29th on 3rd and 10+ (12%).  On defense, the Patriots lead the NFL, allowing only 46% conversions on 3rd and 5 or less.

* - JETS 1ST DOWNS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL:  52% of the Jets 1st down plays have gone for 4+ yards this season (2nd, including 18 out of 29 last week in the rout of the Rams).  Their defense has allowed 4+ on 1st down just 38% of the time, also 2nd.  Last week, the Rams did it just 5 times out of 19 tries.  One thing, though.  The Jets have been somewhat susceptible to giving up the big play on 1st down, allowing 10+ yards 17% of the time (just 23rd).

* - NO RETURNS:  Only 7 of NE’s 28 punts this season have been returned (25%), the lowest number of returns, punts, and lowest % in the NFL.  Of course, the ones that have been returned have gone for an average of 12.9 yards (29th).  Jets returners also average 12.9 yards (6th).  This could be a factor Thursday night.

* - RUN THE BALL AND STOP THE RUN:  Another big factor could be the Jets impressive running game (4.6 average per carry; 3rd) and their ability to shut down their opponents’ run game (3.2 average allowed; 5th).  A real test awaits the Patriots O-Line and the hyphenated running back.  New England’s run defense will also need to step it up after allowing 4 yards or more on 10 of 18 (56%) Bills rushes last week.

* - CLOSE TO THE VEST:  New England has only 2 TD this season of 20+ yards and the Jets have only allowed 1.  Compare that to the Vikings, who have scored a league leading 11 such TD’s this season.

* - NE 3 AND OUTS:  The Patriots didn’t have a 3 and out last week and have the 7th lowest percentage of offensive 3 and outs this season (17%). The Pats forced the Bills into two 3 and outs and now have the 4th highest 3 and out percentage on defense (30%).

* - LONG DRIVES:  The teams are ranked 1-2 in 10+ play drives this year (Pats 23; NYJ 20) so expect lots of ball control.  It’s interesting, though, that the Patriots average only 3.4 points on those drives (24th), while the Jets ALLOW only 2.8 points on each drive, the lowest mark in the NFL.

* - 1ST DOWN DRIVE KILLERS:  The Patriots have allowed 13 sacks on 1st down this year (the most in the league) and the Jets pass rushers have recorded 17 first down sacks, also the most in the league.

* - BLITZ PASSING:  While still the worst defense in the league in “blitz passing” situations (66% completions and a 118 rating), the Pats took a step forward on Sunday against Buffalo (3 for 7, 36 yards).  When the Jets blitz, though, they’ve recorded 17 sacks (NFL high), although when opposing QBs get the pass away, they’ve completed 68% of them, the 2nd highest mark in the league.  Matt Cassel went 5-6 for 82 yards against blitzes last Sunday and has completed 69% of his passes against blitzes this season (3rd).

* - FEW LONG PASSES:  Don’t expect many bombs out of New England tonight.  The Pats offense is only 4 of 18 (2nd fewest completions) when the pass travels 21+ air yards this year and the Jets defense has allowed only 4 of 23 (also the 2nd fewest completions).

* - NOT MANY STUFFS:  Neither team gets runs stuffed often.  The Pats are 2nd, losing yardage on only 5% of their rushes, while the Jets (8%) are 5th.  When the Jets do get stuffed, their average loss (1.6 yards) is the smallest in the NFL (the Pats, 1.9 are 8th).  Neither defense has done well at run stuffing this season.

* - 2ND AND 1 IS DONE DEAL FOR JETS:  The Jets are the only team that is still perfect (10 for 10) on 2nd and 1 this season.

* - STARTING FIELD POSITION:  The Jets average start has been the 35 (1st) while the Pats are 5th (average start at the 33).  This has contributed to only 43% of the Jets scores have come on drives of 60+ yards (the lowest % in the NFL), while the Patriots have the 3rd lowest such percentage (54%).

* - JETS DON’T RUN IT OUT:  When Jets opponents kick off into the end zone this season, 69% of the time it results in a touchback, the highest % in the league.  Also, 67% of Patriots kickoffs that reach the end zone result in touchbacks, also the highest mark in the league.  Compare those figures to NE opponents kickoffs where only 15% of kicks that reach the end zone are not run out.

* - RETURN TOUCHDOWNS:  While the Jets have scored AND allowed 4 return TDs this season, the Pats still have not scored or allowed one all year (Oakland is the only other such team this season).

* - NEGATIVE PLAYS:  While the Patriots (64) have many more negative plays on offense this year than the Jets (51), those plays have only lost 3 more total yards, mostly thanks to the Patriots 4.8 average loss per sack (smallest in the league) versus the Jets average loss of 7.9 yards (3rd largest).  New England’s defense has only recorded 39 negative plays (2nd fewest in the league), but the average loss on Patriots sacks (7.8) is the 2nd highest mark in the NFL.

Enjoy the game!

Posted by Gary Marbry

Not This Kind Of Turnovers!

The New England Patriots “won” the turnover battle yesterday against Buffalo, improving to 4-0 this season when they have more takeaways than giveaways.  Below is a “little Nuggetpalooza”  (Nuggetpaloozito?) about winning (and losing) the turnover battle.

* - The Patriots have won their last 52 games in a row and 61 of their last 62 in which they “won” the turnover battle.  Their last loss was on October 27, 2002 to the Broncos at Foxboro.  In that game, the Broncos jumped out to a 21-7 halftime lead enroute to a 24-16 win despite coughing up a fumble and interception while the Pats committed no turnovers.  New England managed just 179 yards of total offense.  That season, 2002, was the last one in which neither team made the playoffs. 
 
TEAMS THAT HAVE WON 85%+ OF THE TIME WHEN THEY WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE (since 2002):
 
NE -    54-1   .982
BAL -   40-1   .976
PIT -    42-4   .913
GB -     41-4   .911
NO -    35-4   .897
IND -   48-6   .889
CAR -   36-6   .857
NYG -   35-6   .854
TB -     41-7    .854
TEN -   40-7    .851
 
Teams that are undefeated this season when they win the turnover battle:  15
 
* - From Week 6 of the ‘97 season through Week 1 of the ‘98 season, the NY Giants won their turnover battle in 12 straight games.  Only the ‘95-’96 Redskins have cobbled together a streak of as many as 9 straight.  I wonder if that one will ever be broken.
 
* - Since 1991, if you lose the turnover battle, you generally lose the game about 80% of the time.  This season so far, that percentage is slightly lower (75%). 

* - The Detroit Lions have lost their last 70 games in a row (seventy!) in which they had more turnovers than their opponent.  We’re coming up on the 11th anniversary of their last such win.  On December 14, 1997, the Lions won at Minnesota, 14-13, despite committing one more turnover than the Vikings.
 
Here are the worst records in the league when losing the turnover battle:
 
DET -   Lost 70 in a row (since 1998)
ARZ -   1-46 (since 2001)
ATL -   Lost 18 in a row (since 2005)
NO -    2-33 (since 2003)
OAK -  1-32 (since 2004)
SEA -   Lost 14 in a row (since 2006)
SF -     Lost 32 in a row (since 2005)
STL -   Lost 22 in a row (since 2005)
 
 
* - The Packers have won at least one game despite losing the turnover battle in 11 straight seasons, but they are 0-2 so far this year.
 
* - Coming into this season, Miami had gone 1-30 since 2004 when losing the turnover battle, but they are 2-0 this season.  The last team to win at least 2 such games without losing at least 1 was Chicago, who went 3-0 in 2001.
 
* - The ‘91 Bills and the ‘96 Broncos won 6 games despite losing the turnover battle.  8 other teams since 1991 have won 5 such games in a season.
 
* - The only NFL team that has yet to lose the turnover battle in any game this season is Tennessee.  The Titans are 6-0 when they win the turnover battle and 3-0 when it’s been a tie.

I’ll be back by Thursday morning with a full Nuggetpalooza! preview of the big Thursday Nighter against Brett Favre and the Jets!

Posted by Gary Marbry

Gino Cappaletti

Here’s your super-sized order of Nuggets to get you ready for the big game at Gillette on Sunday between the Patriots and the Bills.  As an appetizer, let’s start out with a few things from around the league:

* - No Bombs:  Only two teams do not have a completion on a pass thrown over 40 yards in the air since the beginning of the 2007 season. One is the Dolphins (0 for 9), which is no big whoop.  The other, though, was a shock.  The Colts have thrown just 2 passes that carried at least 40 yards in the air since the beginning of last season, with no completions.

* - Lonnggg Drives:  The Patriots had back-to-back drives of 15 plays last Sunday against Indianapolis.  I checked back to the beginning of the ‘06 season (regular plus postseason, 45 games) and they only had 4 such drives TOTAL in that span going into last week.  Actually, they had FOUR straight drives of 13+ plays (13-13-15-15) last night.  They’ve had one instance where they had 5 consecutive drives of 10+ plays (Week 11 of ‘07; a 56-10 win over Buffalo) but none were over 12 plays (10-12-12-10-10).  They’ve also had two other instances of 3 straight 10+ play drives (13-12-10 and 15-10-10), but nothing like Sunday night.

For the next course, here are a WHOLE BUNCH of Pats/Bills statistical trends, leaders, and laggards:

* - “YAC”ing It Up:  59% of the Patriot’s pass yards have come after the catch (YAC) this season.  That’s not only the highest mark in the league this year, but would also be the highest mark since the stat has been tracked (1995).  The previous high was 56.3% by the Texans in 2006.  The Pats also led the league in this stat back in 2000, 2001, and 2002.

* - Coffin Corner:  The Patriots have downed 9 punts inside the 20 this season and have 8 touchbacks, the 3rd worst ratio in the league.  Buffalo has been quite good at this, downing 10 inside the 20 versus just 4 touchbacks.

* - No Quick Strikes:  New England and Pittsburgh are the only teams that have not allowed a “quick strike” (4 plays or less) touchdown this season.  The Texans have allowed 7.

* - Bringing It Out:  12 times this year opponents have kicked off into the end zone against the Pats, but just 1 has been a touchback.  I guess when you lead the league in kickoffs, you run ‘em out of there.  13 of the 20 Patriot kickoffs that have reached the end zone have gone for touchbacks (2nd highest rate in the league).

* - No Return Policy:  New England and Oakland remain the only two teams that have not scored or allowed a return TD this season (kickoff, punt, interception, or fumble).

* - Limit the Sack Damage:  While the Pats have been sack a lot (29 times; 3rd highest mark in the league) this season, they have limited the damage by averaging the fewest loss yards per sack (4.7) in the NFL by nearly a yard (Seattle, 5.5).  Their defense, on the other hand, maximizes the impact of their sacks, averaging 8.0 loss yards (2nd).

* - Ball Control:  New England has had the most drives of 10+ plays (19) of any team in the NFL this season, while Buffalo (8) ranks 30th.  However, the Pats have not fully cashed in on those drives, averaging just 3.4 points on each one (23rd).  Buffalo has been even worse, averaging 2.5 (30th).  Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 11 such drives this season (5th), but has allowed lots of points when they happen (4.4; 26th).

* - Keep It In Your Pocket, Ref:  The Pats have been the least penalized team in the NFL this season as they’ve only had 24 penalties accepted (out of 29 flags) against them (3 per game).  However, those penalties have totaled 264 yards, or 11.0 per penalty, by far the highest in the league (Saints, 9.7).

* - Bills First Down Offense/Defense:  The Bills have averaged 5.7 yards on 1st down this year on offense (6th), but have been very bad on defensive 1st downs (5.9; 27th).  The Steelers have allowed just 3.8 yards on 1st downs, tops in the league.

* - Run the Ball and Stop the Run:  The Patriots have averaged 9 rushing first downs per game (2nd), while their defense allows just 5 rushing first downs (5th).

* - Protect Your Quarterback:  Patriots QB’s have been sacked an NFL-high 13 times on 1st down.  However, Buffalo’s pass rush has just 1 first down sack this year.

* - Protect Your Quarterback II:  New England is the only defense in the league without a 1st quarter sack this season.

* - Ball Security:  Buffalo’s offense has lost 10 fumbles, the most in the league.  They’ve put it on the ground on 2.1% of their touches, the 2nd highest rate.  The Pats, meanwhile, have lost just 4 fumbles and have fumbled on 1.2% of their touches.  Both rates are 9th best.

* - Goal To Go:  The Bills have struggled at getting the ball into the end zone on goal-to-go opportunities this season, averaging just 4.6 points per chance (29th).  NE’s defense has given up 4.9 points per goal-to-go chance, 8th best in the league.

* - Clutch Pass Defense?:  Opposing QB’s have put up a 121 passer rating (66% completions, 11 TD, 0 Int, 1 Sack) against the Patriots once inside the 30 yard line this year.  The rating and completion percentage are both league worsts.

* - Big Pass Plays Hard to Find:  New England has just 15 pass plays of 20+ yards this season (25th in the NFL), while Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 16 (3rd).  So don’t expect too many aerial fireworks when the Pats have the ball.

* - Holding the Line Following Turnovers:  The Patriot defense has allowed just 1.2 average points after the offense commits a turnover (11 turnovers have equaled 13 points), the 2nd best mark in the league.  Buffalo has been stout, too, allowing an average of 2.5 points after turnovers (7th).

* - Gotta Stay Ahead of the Chains:  On 2n